So a couple of weeks ago I finally had enough of windows and put linux mint on my laptop instead. I haven’t used linux since the early 90s and couldn’t remember much at all, was concerned I’d have trouble with drivers etc.

In fact the whole experience was a piece of piss. So easy. There were no urgent-seeming pop ups with arcane terms, no crashes or problems, I didn’t need to use the command prompt.

Then I was able to find and install the programmes I use easily too. Slack, steam, etc. Within maybe an hour I was able to do my work on the computer again. I kinda feel like I got my laptop back - windows was getting so buggy and aggravating that I had been avoiding using the machine.

If Linux wants a future in which it continues to grow, it needs to do more of this, appealing to the casual, non-technical user. Because we probably represent most of the market.

What I hope is every institution and company has a costum (or bought license to a costum) linux distro which is reliable and stable and fullfill their needs, without having to pay to bug tech nor share all their data with them, but instead a ecosystem where the companies has their own linux devs or IT-department for their linux instead of current SD departments with focus on microsoft environment. Smaller businesses or institutions should be able to buy IT equipment with preinstalled and supported distros to their need.

Through a monitor… probably customizable Vr based DE’s or something if I’m being real

Linux runs the entire internet, a good part of corporate-level servers and it dominates the supercomputing space, you can’t get more mainstream than that.

As for desktop use, most people around the world don’t know what an operating system is, some even believe the browser IS the internet.

With such tech-illiteracy there’s no way Linux can be widely adopted, because no opensource project can beat Microsoft commercial power in “convincing” PC vendors to offer it preinstalled, yes a few do, but they’re very scarce compared to those offering Windows, some even claim you will break the warranty if you install something different than what comes preinstalled (Windows), such a claim is illegal in many countries but some people don’t know any better.

If you don’t know what an OS is, you have no reason to change, unless you’re lucky and have a friend or family member doing the work for you, but you can’t rely on that for the entire world.

THE FUTURE IS NOW!

I doubt it will over take Microslop offerings anytime soon, but I also think the rise of the Linux desktop has only just started. I think it will come from non-US countries where government departments make the switch. People start getting comfortable using it at work, which helps build confidence in the alternatives to Microslop shit. Also Valve still pushing hard in the gaming space. I think 10% to 15% market share in 5 years is possible. I doubt it’ll go beyond 20% without some fundamental changes, like laws forcing hardware OEMs to support Linux equally as windows and Mac, and better DRM support.

Time-limited.

The recent changes to how the digital world operates are not conducive to open operating systems and I imagine this trend will accelerate.

It will last well into the 24th century

10% desktop usage by 2040, possibly 2035 if Microslop keeps being Linux’s #1 marketer.

Bad.

Linux will become the new compromised OS
not far removed from Android,
while GNU Hurd will become the new Linux.

[edit]

Go ahead and vote me down!
It doesn’t change the way Ubuntu and Systemd have operated.

deleted by creator

More popular. More users. Higher percentage of desktop/laptop PC users

Flatpak permissions handled in a very easy to use way. No silent failure. No need to go to flatseal and users understand why something didn’t work how they expected and what they need to do to fix it

Growing Linux userbase eventually results in great day one support for new products from Qualcomm, ARM mali GPUs, PowerVR, etc. They’ll want to be able to compete year after year with Intel and AMD someday

Someday native Linux games rather than WINE/Proton will become the norm

Popular media software categories continue seeing open source software gain mainstream/professional viability. Talking like Blender, Godot, Krita today. Someday stuff like Kdenlive, Scribus, Inkscape, Ardour, GIMP, Darktable, etc will breach some line of good enough functionality, interface design. Someday the user base will grow enough and enough will make it into industry with their experience and opinions

Someday more normal Linux phone OS’s like PostmarketOS will become a solid piece of the mobile pie. Like ~5%. Like how desktop Linux is today. Good usability but still working up to streamlined. That’ll be way better than today. In what I imagine would be well over a decade when a Linux phone is as popular as desktop Linux is today, it’ll actually be pretty easy to use like desktop Linux is today

I see everything through the lens of the difference in user experience and mainstream penetration of 2010 compared to today. Like Kdenlive of 2010 compared to today. 2010 Blender vs today’s Blender. 2010 OpenOffice compared to 2026 Libreoffice. Gaming with WINE in 2010 to today with Proton/WINE/Steam. Unity/KDE/GNOME/etc of 2010 compared to today.

Eventually someone will make it 100% idiot proof.

My money is on 2027 as The Year Of The Linux Desktop.